SITUATION EXPLAINED: Leopold's "Situational Awareness" essay, two years later. • Published June 2024, it founded the genre of long-form AI forecasting microsites • The central claim, "AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible," rests on three drivers: compute, algorithmic efficiency, and "unhobbling" • "Unhobbling" means turning a raw chatbot into something closer to an agent coworker • The compute trend held up, scaling 1.5-2 orders of magnitude per model generation from GPT-2 to GPT-4 • The essay…