In a bull market, everyone's a genius VC… New funds post 15x paper returns. But it has absolutely nothing to do with skill; it’s just the right conditions. Real VCs make their money in a down market. Jason's framework, “the 4 Ds of venture:” Deal flow, Decision-making, Doubling down, and Distributions. The first two are easy. The last two are brutally hard. But that’s where funds live or die.